Over the course of his first weeks in office, President Trump has outlined an America-first energy policy that appears to mean essentially one thing: More U.S. oil production. His policies are decidedly aimed at boosting oil production: green-lighting more drilling on federal lands, building more oil pipelines, and rolling back rules that harm the oil industry. But America First doesn’t necessarily mean a focus on American oil. From a different perspective, the Fuel Freedom Foundation aims to boost the American economy and cut its dependence on OPEC by expanding the fuels available for automobiles.
Fuel Freedom, argues for “ending our oil addiction” and boosting the use of a wide variety of alternatives: EVs, methanol, ethanol, fuel cells, biodiesel and other liquid fuels. This would dampen the price of oil, give consumers a financial break and cut imports from the Middle East, Fuel Freedom argues.
Fuel Freedom has released a tool that forecasts light-duty vehicle growth and electric-vehicle penetration worldwide. The online tool allows users to plug in their own estimates and see how it affects the long-term forecasts, providing a realistic view of where the market is heading over the next 35 years.
The result? As with all changes to the fuel supply, there’s a chicken-and-egg problem. Who is going to pay to install methanol-blend pumps before there are methanol-blend vehicles? Also, members of the group have said EPA needs to allow for modifications of engines so that higher blends of methanol or ethanol could work efficiently.
Who knows whether this is a better “America First” approach. Change is hard, and it is easy to imagine automakers, oil producers and Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) defenders lining up to shoot this down. But the market and technology dictate that some kind of change is coming. Could it be this one?
None of the scenarios in this discussion paper will limit greenhouse gases from causing a 2 degree C increase. Many of the big cities in this world, especially in China… Read more »
Thank you Herschel. The scenarios evaluated were not specifically chosen as pathways to the 2 degree warming goal, rather they were actual projections of electric vehicle sales and overall light-duty… Read more »
Of course, we will not be driving any vehicles in 2050. The vehicles will be driving themselves. This will dramatically lower the cost for using Uber-like services below the cost… Read more »
My “Gallery of Clean Energy Inventions” exhibit profiles 44 generators, 20 advanced self-powered electric vehicle innovations, 26 radioactivity neutralization methods, 24 space travel innovations, 14 technical solutions to water shortages,… Read more »
EVs will rule the day in spite of some oil company predictions. …. Exxon predicts less than10% of cars will be EVs in 2040 … BNEF predicts “35% will have… Read more »
Indeed, EV sales are rising and there is definitely potential for that to have a meaningful impact on petroleum demand. This study however took many of the predictions you cited,… Read more »
I would challenge your market saturation figures. “In early years of the adoption of any disruptive technology, growth rates are likely to be high. For example, in 2010, the first… Read more »
Thank you. As I’m reading it, and to clarify, BNEF’s report shows that 35% of new vehicle sales will be EVs by 2040; this does not mean that 35% of… Read more »
From M.Leibreich Keynote … “A year ago, we were bullish on electric vehicles but significantly under-called the market, estimating 550,000 sales globally in 2016. Instead, sales came in around 700,000… Read more »
Continued growth rates of 42% into perpetuity seems overly ambitious. Is a 42% growth rate feasible when EV sales are at, say, 5 million a year? That would mean the… Read more »
Who said anything about “growth rates of 42% into perpetuity”? I certainly didn’t. AND “Continuing that growth rate would mean 8 out of 10 cars sold in 2030 would be… Read more »
I’m sorry, I must’ve misread what you meant when you wrote “Continuing that growth rate would mean 8 out of 10 cars sold in 2030 would be plug ins.” The… Read more »
I would appreciate knowing where you got your Bloomberg numbers. The ones I have look very different. https://data.bloomberglp.com/bnef/sites/4/2016/02/BNEF_EV-Forecast_2016_FINAL.pdf “This projected change between now and 2040 will have implications beyond the… Read more »
Jane, yes, that is the Bloomberg report that I used. I cross referenced that growth in EV sales with three other projections of overall LDV growth. In all cases, of… Read more »
The Bloomberg report says that in 2040 EVs will represent 25% of the cars on the road. Your Bloomberg figures in your interactive chart shows no where near that 25%… Read more »
Jane, yes, the interactive version shows a lower rate as it based on one of the scenarios that predicts a higher growth rate for the overall LDV fleet. However, in our report,… Read more »
Your interactive chart shows 2040 Bloomberg number of EVs at about 1/2 the number that the Bloomberg report expects. I can only conclude I am looking at numbers skewed to… Read more »
The interactive model shows a “medium LDV growth” scenario. Other scenarios we ran had LDV fleet growth higher and lower. All scenarios were based on research and projections by top-tier… Read more »
Anyone who suggests that they know what the makeup of the fleet will be in 2050 is working more from advocacy than analysis. With that said, I do believe that… Read more »
Monopoly utilities? Those too, hopefully, are becoming a thing of the past … see NY REV and CA, but the path to a new utility structure is being developed in… Read more »
Richard: A few points: 1. The government should not stay out of energy decisions. It has stayed out of regulating carbon emissions so far and that is leading to enormous… Read more »
Dan, you bring up some really interesting points about EVs and other vehicles and their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, as this research shows, even aggressive EV growth… Read more »
Gal: You are correct that we will need to address the emissions from all the vehicles that are and will be on the road in the future (as well as… Read more »
Do you know if fueling EVs is still cheaper in the developing world where electricity is generally more expensive and infrastructure is lacking (and perhaps even in some developed countries… Read more »
Gal: We are discussing the world a few decades from now. Renewable energy (wind and solar) is at par or cheaper than centralized fossil fuel electricity generation now, and renewables… Read more »
I agree – certainly decreasing costs will only make the case for renewables grow stronger and this is most likely an inevitability. I just caution, given the findings presented here,… Read more »
While developing countries have an excuse for ignoring the external cost of fossil fuels when they are focused on day-to-day survival, we (the developed world) have no such excuse. We… Read more »
Dan: I’m not advocating that government should stay completely out of energy decisions. But, I also don’t believe that providing subsidies that favor one technology at the expense of another… Read more »
Richard: While command and control might be a possible solution, it is not politically viable now and may not be until things start to break down (think martial law). There… Read more »
First Word Energy is locked in the past and driven by belief that CO2 is a serious problem. Before getting to the government’s role in mobility, the empirical evidence clearly… Read more »
Bill: It’s astonishing that you claim that CO2 is not a serious problem. You are going against every major scientific academy in the world. But as CEO of the George… Read more »