Full Title: Can the ambitions of the Paris Climate Agreement be met? Coping with climate change and delivering on development.
Author(s): Amar Bhattacharya
Publisher(s): Brookings Institute
Publication Date: October 1, 2016
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Description (excerpt):
The Paris Agreement on climate change overcame the notion of a “horse race” between development and climate responsibility. At its core is a promise to keep global warming to “well below 2 degrees Celsius” and to “pursue efforts for 1.5 Celsius or lower.” The agreement forms the basis of new international, cooperative, long-term climate change action plans with a shared sense of direction and responsibility.
Yet without ramped up ambition, the Paris Agreement cannot be realized. This hits home when one considers the alarming climate effects already evident around the world–from the Middle East where the number of extremely hot days have doubled since 1970, to small islands that have already had to move entire communities due to rising seas.
Current pledges for national action as reflected in the intended nationally defined contributions of each country that signed onto the Paris Agreement would yield emissions of around 55-60 gigatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide (GtCO2e) per annum in 2030, an improvement on a business–as–usual scenario estimated at 65-68 GtCO2e per annum. However, to hold global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius, we would need to lower greenhouse gas emissions to a level of 40 GtCO2e per year or lower by 2030.
By implication, peak emissions must be reached as soon as possible.
Also hammered out in Paris were conventions for measurement and verification as well as an agreement to meet every five years to assess progress towards meeting nationally defined contributions with a view to enhancing levels of ambition.