Full Title: Electric Vehicles and Their Impact on Oil Demand: Why Forecasts Differ
Author(s): Marianne Kah
Publisher(s): Columbia SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy
Publication Date: July 1, 2018
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
While the passenger vehicle sector represents only about one-quarter of the oil demand barrel, the sector receives a significant amount of attention from some governments and the media. This is due largely to the belief that a rapid transition from conventional oil-powered cars to electric vehicles (EVs) is both possible and necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality. Numerous studies analyzing the impact of EVs on oil demand have been published. To determine whether the enthusiasm around the potential for EVs to reduce fossil fuel consumption is warranted, the author reviewed several of these studies and found that it was difficult to derive insight from comparing these published forecasts, because they were not calculated on the same basis and they failed to provide some key underlying assumptions. To bridge that gap, the author conducted a survey of 15 of these forecasters representing governments, think tanks, consultants, investment banks, and oil companies to obtain comparable data along with their underlying assumptions, with the agreement that the sources of the data would not be disclosed.