Full Title: Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations
Author(s): K. Orwig, C. Clark, J. Cline, S. Benjamin, J. Wilczak, M. Marquis, C. Finley, A. Stern, J. Freedman
Publisher(s): National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Publication Date: September 1, 2012
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
The current state-of-the-art wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-h time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risks to the U.S. electric grid. It is widely recognized within the electric grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: (1) a one-year field measurement campaign within to regions; (2) enhancement of NOAA’s experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and (3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improves forecasts to grid operations. This paper and presentation provide and overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.