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High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System

High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System

Full Title:  High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System
Author(s):  North American Electrical Reliability Corporation
Publisher(s):  North American Electrical Reliability Corporation
Publication Date: May 1, 2012
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):

The bulk power system is one of North America’s most critical infrastructures, underpinning the continent’s governments, economy and society. As reliance on electricity-dependent technology has increased, the reliability of the power grid has become more important each day. The electric sector has recognized the importance of the infrastructure it operates and has had a long history of successfully managing day-to-day operational and probabilistic risk to the reliability of the system to ensure the “lights stay on” for consumers.

A class of risks, called High-Impact, Low-Frequency (HILF) events, has recently become a renewed focus of risk managers and policy makers. These risks have the potential to cause catastrophic impacts on the electric power system, but either rarely occur, or, in some cases, have never occurred. Examples of HILF risks include coordinated cyber, physical, and blended attacks, the high-altitude detonation of a nuclear weapon, and major natural disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis, large hurricanes, pandemics, and geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar weather. HILF events truly transcend other risks to the sector due to their magnitude of impact and the relatively limited operational experience in addressing them. Deliberate attacks (including acts of war, terrorism, and coordinated criminal activity) pose especially unique scenarios due to their inherent unpredictability and significant national security implications. As concerns over these risks have increased, the electric sector is working to take a leadership position among other Critical Infrastructure and Key Resource (CIKR) sectors in addressing these risks.

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