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Integrated Canada-U.S. Power Sector Modeling with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

Integrated Canada-U.S. Power Sector Modeling with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

Full Title:  Integrated Canada-U.S. Power Sector Modeling with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)
Author(s):  Andrew Martinez, Kelly Eurek, Trieu Mai, and Andrew Perry
Publisher(s):  National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Publication Date: February 1, 2013
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):

The electric power system in North America is linked between the United States and Canada. Canada has historically been a net exporter of electricity to the United States. The extent to which this remains true will depend on the future evolution of power markets, technology deployment, and policies. To evaluate these and related questions, we modify the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to include an explicit representation of the grid- connected power system in Canada to the continental United States. ReEDS is unique among long-term capacity expansion models for its high spatial resolution and statistical treatment of the impact of variable renewable generation on capacity planning and dispatch. These unique traits are extended to new Canadian regions. We present example scenario results using the fully integrated Canada-U.S. version of ReEDS to demonstrate model capabilities. Two scenarios are examined: a no-new-policy reference scenario and a clean electricity standard (CES) scenario where 80% of all electricity generation in the United States and Canada must come from clean sources by 2035. Under the assumptions used, the preliminary scenario analysis demonstrates that without any new energy policies, growth in fossil generation will continue in both the United States and Canada. For the CES scenario, a mix of renewable, nuclear, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies are deployed and result in about 70% reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in 2050, as compared to the reference scenario. Growth in wind capacity is particularly significant in Canada, reaching 46 GW of installed capacity by 2050. We also evaluate changes in electricity and fossil fuel prices in the two scenarios. The newly developed integrated Canada-U.S. ReEDS model can be used to analyze the dynamics of electricity transfers and other grid services between the two countries under different scenarios. Annual electricity transfers in the reference scenario remain largely constant over time and are small compared to total generation. However, instantaneous power transfers can be larger. Under the CES scenario, we find greater energy transfers between the two countries. Additionally, we find that seasonal differences in peak electricity demand between load centers in Canada and the United States allow sharing of firm capacity between the two countries.

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