Critical Policy Recommendations
Flex Fuel GEM Mandate – 50% of gasoline powered vehicles by 2011 reaching 100% by 2013. Check possibility of faster 100% implementation. It is essential that the mandate will be for all types of alcohols, not just for ethanol (GEM = Gasoline, Ethanol Methanol).
Every car stays on the road 16.8 years. We must produce cars that can run on multiple fuels now so we will not get stuck with gasoline only cars but without oil. It is a known technology that costs less than $100 per car.Increase the Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Tax Credit to 50% for three years going down to 30% for additional two years and 15% for the last two years (total seven years). This should encourage gas station owners to perform the pump conversion faster.
We must provide drivers with places the fuel their cars. The market will take care of the rest. The pump must support Methanol blends as well as Ethanol.Plug-in Hybrids – tax incentives to consumers and other incentives to car companies to produce and buy Plug-in Hybrids. This should be part of a ladder of incentives to cars that will be running “not on oil” (partially passed as part of HR 1424 – the emergency economic stabilization bill).
80% of the cars are driven less than 20 miles per day. Plug-in Hybrids that can run 20-40 miles on electricity and charge at night are a winner on all fronts. We should push them as fast as possible.Mandate ALL federal and local government vehicle purchases to be either GEM flex fuel cars or plug-in hybrids.
Increase the current “weak” mandates. The market needs an aggressive starter.Mandate government (federal and local) use of bio-diesel in ALL its diesel vehicles.
Increase the current “weak” mandates. The market needs an aggressive starter. DOD is the prime user.
I just don’t understand, with all of the mandating demands being made, that we don’t mandate that 30% or more of workers whose jobs are ‘teleworkable’ just leave their cars… Read more »
I am totally with you. There are several general problems: 1. telecommunication is not as efficient as face to face talk. 2. the working environment are often optimized for higher… Read more »
On March 30, 2011, President Obama announced his Administration’s goal to cut foreign oil imports by one-third over the next ten years. Text of speech: http://bit.ly/fNt4qA The Administration’s plan follows… Read more »
Yes, I think this is an achievable and laudable goal. However, in terms of economics it misses the point. Even if we cut oil imports this much, especially if we… Read more »
I’ve heard this so many times by American Presidents that it has become meaningless. If President Obama thinks he is going to accomplish this with biofuel, solar or wind power… Read more »
Sorry, Mr. President, but you are simply wrong. There is a “quick fix” that can massively reduce U.S. oil consumption, and make our vulnerability to price spikes in the foreign… Read more »
I suppose different people have different notions of what constitutes a “quick fix”. I’m very much in favor of flex fuel standards, but let’s not overpromise. If the suggested Open… Read more »
The quickest fix available is telework. A car that stays parked burns no fuel. Estimates indicate that 50 million workers telecommuting 2 days a week would save some 10 billion… Read more »
I agree with Roger Arnold. I totally support an open fuel standard but it is not a “quick fix” and the President was right. There is very little anyone can… Read more »
I had a most pleasant day on Friday April 1 at the University of Maryland where I gave a seminar on my almost completed revised draft of “A Call to… Read more »
As I remember, gasoline has a greater energy density than methanol, but methanol was used in race cars because it had a higher octane rating and the engines could use… Read more »
It is interesting that just over the last few weeks this topic have really gained momentum. I got this question now from several people. At this point I would venture… Read more »
I’ve been interested in the trade offs among various liquid fuels for some time. For starters, I agree with pretty much everything Eyal writes below. In terms of energy policy,… Read more »
There are strong incentives for flex fuel vehicles. The current gasoline standard is an historical artifact of the properties of Texas crude oil. If it had a larger kerosene fraction,… Read more »
All of these energy goals are promised to be met well after the term of any incumbents are over and past history.
This statement sounds similar to those echoed by each U.S. president since Dwight Eisenhower. But today we’re using more foreign oil than ever. So, what is it that makes you… Read more »
Bruce, I read through your paper, “Biofuels Done Right”( http://bit.ly/hN96OG ), and know that if I knew more, I would appreciate it even more. So please excuse my ignorance and… Read more »
Herschel: In answer to your questions: 1) Yes, soil will eventually saturate with carbon. However, that time is very far out. We have degraded our soils so much with 300… Read more »
Bruce, Thanks for your reply. In my quick read of your paper two thoughts we have previously talked about did not appear to be there. They are the assumption of… Read more »
Herschel: I have taken some time to think through a good answer to your question about how fast we could roll out a much larger ethanol industry. Such an industry… Read more »
Thanks for this Bruce. I converted your 10 billion gallons per year into 0.65 million barrels/day (please check me out on this). One thing that I was not sure of… Read more »
Herschel: I forgot to answer your other question. Yes, 10 billion gallons per year of gasoline is roughly 0.65 million barrels of gasoline per day. But since 1 barrel of… Read more »
A 5MB/D shortfall would be difficult, to say the least.
A few comments: 1. We will not be short of 5MB. The world will be. We will get our oil (all strong nations will). Others will suffer. 2. The question… Read more »
Hi Yossie: I wonder how strong we will be at that point, given our imploding currency and debt burden, but I take your point. And I agree that the sooner… Read more »
The Chinese used a floor a few years back. It is not realistic in our current political system. However, I think that opening the blenders monopoly is the second most… Read more »
This is a most valuable discussion. There are several parts to this: (1) How much of an oil shortfall might there be world wide and in the United States? When… Read more »
Colleagues: It seems we might get much more traction to advance a coherent, effective national energy policy if the public, and our political leaders, were able to connect the current… Read more »
Dear all: I strongly support what Bruce has said. There are a few themes that I believe that we can and should communicate to our political leaders, et al. First,… Read more »
Colleagues: To reinforce what Herschel has written below, I would like to share what a good friend of mine in the biofuels business has written below about the barriers to… Read more »
Here is an interesting paper written by the EIA about the relationship between GDP growth and oil prices: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/aeo_2006analysispapers/efhop.html They are estimating a long-term decline of GDP (or headwind to… Read more »
The image I’ve posted above is DoE graph. I superimposed on it the amount of money we spend every year on each energy supply source. I had to guess a… Read more »
Herschel, I don’t know how to quantify an oil shortfall. Does market theory even recognize the concept of a shortfall in any formal sense? Supply and demand must always match… Read more »
Dear Roger, Thank you for this thoughtful post. Perhaps classical economics does not met our needs, i.e., supply and demand must match, when there is a difference between actual consumption… Read more »
Roger, I tend to agree that compared to historical norms and the state of the economy current oil prices are high. So to that extend one can say that we… Read more »
I agree with Roger that supply and demand always meet via price. However, this is not a free market. China India, Indonesia, Brazil, etc. will continue to grow (although the… Read more »
Yossie, Regarding your last sentence, I need to take issue with that, and with the total omission of travel and fuel demand from this discussion. This is very frustrating because… Read more »
In a related subject, many of us have been concentrating on getting petroleum out of our transportation sector, as we should. However, about a third of all the petroleum we… Read more »
Herschel, From cost to the economy point of view the industrial use of oil are the byproducts of transportation fuels. Hence I am guessing that more than 90% of the… Read more »
Herschel: If I read your email correctly, you state that about one third of the mass of petroleum ends up at higher value products (lubricants, plastics, etc.). I think that… Read more »
Dear Bruce, Thank you for your note. It is clear that I need to tighten up on the words that I used. Based on EIA data, about 72% of the… Read more »
Enter your comment Colleagues: I have thought about Roger’s comments below in terms of my earlier post. I am not an economist, just a humble ( 🙂 ) chemical engineer,… Read more »
Hi Herschel, I am interested in your coal plant CO2 to Methanol idea, utilizing nuclear power to provide the reduction source. Due to the complexity of coal gas, various particles/sulfur… Read more »
Conflict with food production is widely believed to sharply limit the potential of biofuels. This belief rests on several, usually unspoken, assumptions that are either outright wrong, or badly incomplete.… Read more »
1. Farmers grow three types of crops: food, feed, industrial raw materials. Lets look at cotton for example: why the question isn’t “food vs cloths”? 2. It now costs $120… Read more »
Enter your comment here In order to use market forces to reduce our dependence on oil, it is necessary to put a very large tax on oil consumption. So far,… Read more »
A majority of our Representatives and Senators must be convinced that it is a national security issue as well as a global climate change issue to cut down on our… Read more »
Have a look at America’s Achilles Heel: The Hidden Costs of Imported Oil by Milton Copulos. It’s a bit dated (2003), but he tried to put some quantification to some… Read more »
This is right on target. I’m just about through with my “white paper” on this subject which you can then post for all OurEnergyPolicy participants. Perhaps the five major points… Read more »
Unfortunately, I am not in position to do the economic analysis rightly called for by Mr. Hinckley. It is also questionable whether any such study would be enough to convince… Read more »
I think that’s right on the mark. Even if you can establish a price that reflects externalities and assorted subsidies you still have to provide certainty that that building those… Read more »
A federal tax on oil consumption is clearly justified to pay for the national social costs incurred that are not accounted for in the direct costs paid by consumers. These… Read more »
Mr. Goldberg, I enjoyed your brief paper outlining this policy concept. The timing is good, since not only is our energy strategy being debated, but a federal transportation infrastructure investment… Read more »
Mr. Lovaas, thanks very much for your comment on my article and for suggesting enrollment in mobilitychoice.org. I signed up for it and am very interested to hear about what… Read more »
I believe en energy tax specifically on oil is terribly counter productive and takes our eye off the ball; the demand for energy worldwide, especially as China and India develop… Read more »
As recently as May 2nd, 2011, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline hit $3.96, more than a $1.06/gallon than it was on the same date just one… Read more »
We should let prices rise, and add a tax to internalize the external costs of petroleum. We have subsidized the oil industry with government support for far too long, which… Read more »
Let’s put the model ( https://www.ourenergypolicy.org/docs/10/Exec_Sum.pdf ) to the stress test. An international security event forces our hand. We have to reduce our oil usage (not just import) by 50%… Read more »
Colleagues: In response to Yossie’s question, if we were under pressure to reduce petroleum use, we could replace an awful lot of oil in a decade by aggressively building out… Read more »
I agree with Dr. Dale — up to a point. The sad truth of the matter with regard to the Transportation Sector, which is 98 percent dependent upon oil, is… Read more »
Dave makes a good point, and one that my previous email failed to make clear. The market for oil is global. Therefore, if you believe, as I do, that the… Read more »
Bruce makes the point about the prices of Li-ion batteries for electric cars that is generally accepted among analysts. See NY Times article ( https://www.ourenergypolicy.org/docs/9/Study_Raises_Cost_Estimate_for_Electric_Cars_-_NYTimes.com.pdf ). Even the “pessimistic” analysis… Read more »
We are working on, but have not yet completed, the parallel analysis for batteries, but in thinking through resource scarcity and innovation in the solar materials area, this paper (… Read more »
I have not located the Boston study, but it does not make sense: The cost of materials as a portion of the price of the battery is less than 5%.… Read more »
Yossie, I agree with you. There is something not quite right about that pessimistic Boston Consulting Group study. For one thing (and please correct me if I am wrong,) they… Read more »
I’m not a defender of the Boston Consulting Group study by any stretch and Dave Goldstein makes many persuasive points. Here is an article about a similar study by another… Read more »
Our analysis ( https://www.ourenergypolicy.org/docs/9/LemoineKammenFarrell-ERL2008.pdf , https://www.ourenergypolicy.org/docs/9/Lemoine-Kammen-ERL-2009.pdf ) is consistent with much of what dave g. says. however, while nobody can really predict, my assessment from talking to Coda, BYD, Nissan,… Read more »
Hi Dan, a number of states have rebates or tax credits for PEVs (e.g., California’s is up to $5,000, Colorado’s is up to $6,000, and Maryland’s is up to $2,000).… Read more »
I agree with Dave on the necessity to plan. Here are a few additional random thoughts. Incentives to carpool, for example, could be actively encouraged BEFORE the disruptive event (or… Read more »
We could do this, in principle, mostly by one simple thing: raising the price of gas at the pump (a lot) the rest would take care of itself people would… Read more »
Wouldn’t you have to raise the price by quite a bit to change behavior? People won’t make a Uturn to get gas at a station that is not their own… Read more »
sure it needs to be raised until.. it makes a difference… kind of circular/by definition/assumption to cut usage by 50% might take raising it to European price levels, but regardless,… Read more »
It was a bit of a rhetorical question. We didn’t do it when we had the perfect opportunity so I wouldn’t expect it any time soon.
HR-1476 (the Open Fuel Standard Act), requires that starting in 2012, 50% of new automobiles powered by an internal combustion engine, and starting in 2015, 80% of such new be… Read more »
The Dorgan-Voinovich National Energy Security Act of 2009 requires 100% flex fuel penetration by 2017. This is a more realistic pace.
One should not single out Plug-in Hybrids as the only alternative to liquid fueled vehicles. Pure battery electric vehicles deserve equal treatment. While many automakers have PHEV plans, some prefer… Read more »
Electrification of transportation could displace oil, diversify energy inputs and reduce GHG. Fleet purchases by the federal government would jump start and leverage industry development. H.R. 4399, The American Electric… Read more »
I suspect Rep. Bartlett understands that the U.S. has only a tiny fraction of the oil reserves it needs to sustain its current demand, much less the growing demand many… Read more »
E-Drive Bill — HR 4399 Electrification of the Postal Fleet USPS operates the largest commercial fleet in the country with 142,000 local delivery vehicles. These “LLV” model vehicles average 9… Read more »
This is an excellent idea. Battery Electric transportation has higher performance and cheaper lifecycle costs for traveling requiring less than ~100 miles in a single trip. Mail carriers typically only… Read more »
As a 7 year EV driver, I can attest to the rationality behind HR 4399. When I give talks about the viability of electric vehicles, I inevitably get comments that… Read more »
I am an entrepreneurial Electrical Engineer with an MBA, several startups and 32 years of experience in LED and Display Technology under my belt. I have been following Oil Shale… Read more »
I have just read an overview of the previous comments and what I see missing is the idea of energy density. Hydrocarbon fuels have the highest energy density of any… Read more »