We should expand drilling for natural gas in areas where it can be transported via a pipeline to the US. The primary uses of natural gas should be reserved to:
- Electricity generation — cleaner and reduced GHG compared to today’s coal. It is also the best solution for peak demand. The most important role of natural gas in the U.S. energy policy is to offset instabilities in power generation by renewables like wind and solar. As the quantity and diversity of unstable renewables increases, their supply variation will be lower and the need for natural gas as a peak supply filler will be reduced.
- Industry – where it is required as a chemical component. It will take a long time to develop “new chemistry” that will not be dependent on oil and natural gas.
- Home use, especially heating to replace oil.
Worldwide natural gas production will peak just as oil, most probably shortly after oil. Therefore, we should be very careful about over expanding our use of natural gas. Also, natural gas is likely to stay significantly more expensive than coal for the foreseeable future. Every new gas powered plant should be built with possible conversion to coal in mind (when we learn to capture GHG). It will be essential for future U.S. competitiveness.
We need to eliminate oil as a home heating fuel:
- Stage 1 — In states that have not yet done so, ban the use of oil based home heaters in new house construction.
- Stage 2 — a replacement program for existing oil heaters. It can be very costly to replace current home oil based systems and if the other programs for energy independence and global warming are successful, this stage can simply be done by regular market attrition forces as old heaters age. The cost may be prohibitive and it may be better to wait. This stage should remain on hold pending the success of the other oil use reduction programs.
- Longer term — we may consider replacing natural gas based home heating with electrical heating from renewable sources. At this point in the energy crisis and given the current cost structure of the different methods, this idea should be frozen and re-examined in 10 years. One immediate exception — water heating by residential solar systems.
Limit the import of LNG to the U.S. There are many reasons for discouraging the growth in use of LNG:
- LNG is imported from the same countries where oil is coming from. We do not want to simply change the variety of our dependency. It is vital to our future security and economic viability to stop funding the Oil (or LNG) producing countries. There could be some (import source) exceptions but the trend should not be encouraged. We should not replace one addiction with another. It is in our national interest to “dry up” the Middle East oil and gas producers.
- We should have enough natural gas if we follow the policies in this paper and not over expand the use of natural gas.
- It will further encourage drilling for natural gas within the continental U.S. and the nearby sea shelf.
What has happened to so dramatically change the natural gas supply picture? The ability to supplement domestic natural gas production with imported gas from Canada and LNG, substitute gas from… Read more »
Bob Catell is correct. Gas shale is a game changer. Daniel Yergin and Robert Ineson of the Cambridge Energy Research Associates recently authored an article for the Wall Street Journal,… Read more »
Note that reducing the cost of anything by 200% is impossible. 100% is a much as one can go. By then it’s free. This needs explanation.
Let us not forget that gas companies operating in the United States are not “nationalized” and the United States does not own the production. This gas, ultimately, will flow wherever… Read more »
Are there economic/physical constraints that limit the rate of gas extraction through the shale? What experience do we have about predicting when a pocket of shale gas might become exhausted?… Read more »
There are 6000 trillion cubic feet of proved natural gas reserves worldwide, early indicators (an extrapolation, not a characterization) suggest there are 32,000 tcf of unconventional natural gas reserves worldwide.… Read more »
The following logic contributed to the statement: • The proved reserve numbers are far from accurate and are published mostly by non objective parties. • The largest portion of word… Read more »
Proved reserves, a figure which I used as well, is only one indicator, one that is significantly lower than technically recoverable reserves. In the US, we have roughly 230 tcf… Read more »
Melanie, Thanks for the informative clarification of how to view US and global natural gas reserves. I would add a few other points: 1) Deep gas is a another key… Read more »
Assuming we agree on the following: • The US has substantial NG reserves (conventional and others). • From a demand/supply perspective, the important market to look at is North America,… Read more »
I understand what Henry Goldberg is trying to get across, but I think the way of stating it is unfortunate. Imagine that he had said: “The concept of Canadian and… Read more »
It appears that both Canada and Mexico have reached their peak of conventional (cheap) oil production and are beginning the declining phase of conventional oil production that the US entered… Read more »
Canada and Mexico are the largest oil exporters to the U.S. As the U.S evolves towards reduced oil use in the transportation sector to meet environmental objectives, Canada and Mexico… Read more »
I agree we should include Canada and Mexico in the calculation of oil and gas reserves from which we can purchase these fuels at global market prices. And, we can… Read more »
Assuming we agree on the following: • The US has substantial NG reserves (conventional and others). Unconventional gas production is rapidly approaching conventional production in the US • From a… Read more »
We should remember than 32,000 tcf of NG represents 1750 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2. This much CO2, all by itself, not counting coal and oil emissions, represents a >50% probability… Read more »
I am curious about any responses to the NYT editorial on shale gas. While I am an energy policy person, not a driller, it appears to me that the editorial… Read more »
I believe that the EIA’s Impact of Limitations on Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Federal Outer Continental Shelf should be required reading: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/aeo_2009analysispapers/aongr.html This explores a… Read more »