Full Title: Solar Power: Darkest Before Dawn
Author(s): Krister Aanesen, Stefan Heck, and Dickon Pinner
Publisher(s): McKinsey & Company
Publication Date: May 1, 2012
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
In less than a decade, the solar-photovoltaic (PV) sector has transformed from a cottage industry centered in Germany to a $100 billion business with global reach. Among the factors contributing to its growth were government subsidies, significant capacity additions from existing and new entrants, and continual innovation. PV prices have fallen dramatically, and by 2011, global installed capacity exceeded 65 gigawatts (GW).
PV prices are expected to continue to fall—even though subsidies are expected to dry up—as manufacturing capacity doubles over the next three to five years and underlying costs drop by as much as 10 percent annually until 2020. Indeed, our analysis suggests that by the end of the decade, costs could decline to $1 per watt peak (Wp) for a fully installed residential system. But even if costs only fall to $2 per Wp, the industry is still likely to install an additional 400 to 600 GW of PV capacity between now and 2020.