Full Title: Can We Reach 100 Million Electric Cars Worldwide By 2030?
Author(s): by Lew Fulton, Alan Jenn, and Gil Tal
Publisher(s): Global Fuel Economy Initiative
Publication Date: 05/201
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This report is part 2 of a study of the potential to achieve a particular target of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales worldwide by 2030. That target is 100 million for 4 wheel road vehicles (cars and LDVs) as a cumulative sales (or roughly a stock) target in that year, consistent with the Paris Declaration on Electromobility. The previous report2 provided an overview of trends and some of the key considerations in getting to the 100 million target. This report takes a more rigorous approach, considering formalized models and scenario development and projecting key factors to 2030 to gain a sense of whether they suggest that sales of 100 million over that time frame are realistic or even plausible.
We undertake three different model development strategies and compare the projections from these models, using the same dataset and same basic approach to calibrating the models. From that point of view, this work provides both a comparison of methodologies and a multi-pronged approach to testing the 100 million hypothesis, perhaps increasing the rigor of the projections (at least allowing for 3 different ways to see if it can be done, and how similar these projections are).
The data used in this study are frim HIS, with considerable improvement both by IEA and UC Davis. It covers vehicle registrations in 35 countries over a 6-year period (2010-2015), and includes a range of details about each vehicle model/configuration sold, to allow tracking of attributes such as vehicle price, efficiency, and driving range, among other things. Details of the dataset are provided in an appendix, along with details on the methods used to develop, calibrate, and project with the three models