Full Title: Expert Consensus on the Economics of Climate Change
Author(s): Peter Howard and Derek Sylvan
Publisher(s): Institute for Policy Integrity
Publication Date: December 1, 2015
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
Given that effective climate change policy must balance the costs of action and the likely economic damages from inaction, the views of economists about climate change are particularly important. After decades of research and debate, the scientific community has developed widespread consensus that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is necessary. However, policymakers and journalists often portray economists as more conservative than scientists when it comes to climate policy, possibly due to their focus on market-driven adaptation and the costs of mitigation.
In an effort to clarify the level of consensus among economists with respect to climate change risks, economic impacts, and policy responses, we conducted a survey of expert economists. Our survey builds on a similar 2009 survey conducted by other researchers at the Institute for Policy Integrity. We surveyed all those who have published an article related to climate change in a highly ranked, peer-reviewed economics or environmental economics journal since 1994. This survey allowed us to compare the views of economic experts to the views of the general public and help establish expert consensus on the likely economic impacts of climate change and the recommended policy responses. The survey also provides insights about the appropriate assumptions to use in “integrated assessment models” – the climate-economic models that many policymakers consult to inform climate policy decisions.
We designed a 15-question online survey with questions focused on climate change risks, economic damage estimates, and policy responses. We invited the 1,103 experts who met our selection criteria to participate, and we received 365 completed surveys.