Utilities in at least three regions of the country — the Midwest, the South and New England — and Texas should be prepared for winter energy shortfalls and load shedding. This is the consensus of numerous prognostications, including from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the industry’s own forecaster.

In the Midwest, nuclear and coal have been retired without being replaced megawatt for megawatt. In the South, it may be that utilities are not yet fully prepared for atypical cold events. And in New England, natural gas shortages, caused by pipeline inadequacy for generation, may lead to load shedding. It is a grim picture alleviated only by early warnings and the preparedness of utilities, working cooperatively, to rush crews and other relief to each other.

The National Weather Service and the commercial services are projecting a warmer than usual winter. But the joker is unpredictable severe weather. It promises to be capricious — a reflection of the new weather reality. Already, we have seen severe weather across the country and snow in Texas in November.

To assess the coming winter, the United States Energy Association, a no-fuel-preference, non-political, and non-lobbying group, has scheduled a virtual press briefing, another in its series of them, to examine what the utility industry and the public face as winter bears down.