Full Title: Lifting the Crude Oil Export Ban: The Impact on U.S. Manufacturing
Author(s): Thomas J. Duesterberg, Donald A. Norman, and Jeffrey F. Werling
Publisher(s): The Aspen Institute
Publication Date: October 1, 2014
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Description (excerpt):
The manufacturing sector is an important source of strength in the U.S. economic recovery. The surging oil and gas production sector, in turn, is a major reason behind the manufacturing sector’s robust performance since 2010. This paper employs the Inforum LIFT economic forecasting model to analyze how removing the ban on crude oil exports could add to growth in manufacturing by stimulating higher levels of oil production in the United States. Two scenarios are presented and contrasted with a baseline derived from EIA’s base economic projections, a low export case (up to 2 million barrels per day [b/d] at peak year in additional oil production) and a high export case (which would average 2 million b/d and reach a peak of 3.25 million b/d). Higher levels of oil production require higher investment expenditures for capital equipment and construction, which in turn boost overall demand for goods. This stimulates the manufacturing sector and its supply and distribution chains. The resulting improvement in income and employment boosts the economy significantly.