Full Title: Oil & Gas Forecast to 2050
Author(s):
Publisher(s): DNV GL
Publication Date: September 1, 2017
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Description (excerpt):
Oil and gas will play a very important role in the energy mix throughout our forecasting period. Although we expect renewable energy sources to take an increasing share of this mix, we forecast oil and gas to account for 44% of the world’s primary energy supply in 2050, down from 53% today. Investment will be needed to add new oil and gas production capacity, and to operate existing assets safely and sustainably over this period, to deliver output levels that can meet predicted demand.
The stage is set for gas to become the world’s primary energy source towards 2050, and the last of the fossil fuels to experience peak demand, which will occur in 2035 according to our model. Gas can play a central role in supporting energy security alongside variable renewables during the transition. There are opportunities to improve its carbon footprint by curtailing methane emissions from its value chain and through improving the economics of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) for gas-fuelled power generation. We expect demand for oil to be at its maximum in 2022 and the high point for coal has already passed.
The growing role of gas, and declining demand for coal and oil will reduce the carbon intensity of fossil fuel use, as oil and gas majors continue to focus on reducing the carbon footprint of their business portfolios. However, our model forecasts that global warming will likely reach 2.5 degrees Celsius (oC) above pre-industrial levels. This is not in line with the COP 21 Paris Agreement on climate change, which aims to keep global warming to ‘well below 2oC’.
Against this background, this report provides an in-depth analysis of the implications of our model across the oil and gas value chain.