This month OPEC, the intergovernmental affiliation of twelve oil-producing countries, released two different estimates for its members’ monthly crude production. The first estimated 31.2m b/d in February, and relied on secondary sources, as OPEC estimates have traditionally done since 1986. The significantly higher second estimate of 32.1m b/d relied on direct internal reporting from OPEC member countries. The estimates’ disparity casts doubt on the accuracy of OPEC’s reporting. OPEC accounts for 44% of world oil supply.

In an article for Platts, Richard Swann explains “OPEC crude production estimates are undoubtedly among the world’s most important pieces of oil market data. These figures are perhaps more significant given the current climate of uncertainty surrounding Iran’s oil exports.”

Javier Blas, commodities editor of Financial Times, agreed and added that “the dispute about the true level of production is not merely an internal matter for [OPEC]. It complicates policymaking and contributes to instability in oil markets as traders are unsure about supply.”

How might the uncertainty around OPEC’s estimates impact public and private decision-making? Why has OPEC opted to provide two estimates from different sources? What benefit might there be to doing this? What does news like this say about the reliability of energy information?