Full Title: 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment
Author(s): North American Electric Reliability Corporation
Publisher(s): North American Electric Reliability Corporation
Publication Date: December 19, 2024
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Description (excerpt):
In the 2024 LTRA, NERC finds that most of the North American BPS faces mounting resource adequacy challenges over the next 10 years as surging demand growth continues and thermal generators announce plans for retirement. New solar PV, battery, and hybrid resources continue to flood interconnection queues, but completion rates are lagging behind the need for new generation.
Furthermore, the performance of these replacement resources is more variable and weather dependent than the generators they are replacing. As a result, less overall capacity (dispatchable capacity in particular) is being added to the system than what was projected and needed to meet future demand. The trends point to critical reliability challenges facing the industry: satisfying escalating energy growth, managing generator retirements, and accelerating resource and transmission development.
This 2024 LTRA is the ERO’s independent assessment and comprehensive report on the adequacy of planned BPS resources to reliably meet the electricity demand across North America over the next 10 years; it also identifies reliability trends, emerging issues, and potential risks that could impact the long-term reliability, resilience, and security of the BPS. The findings presented here are vitally important to understanding the reliability risks to the North American BPS as it is currently planned and being influenced by government policies, regulations, consumer preferences, and economic factors.