Full Title: Clean Transportation: An Economic Assessment of More Inclusive Vehicle Electrification in California
Author(s): David Roland-Holst, Samuel Heft-Neal, Annie Yi Chen, Liam Frölund
Publisher(s): Next 10, Berkeley Economic Advising and Research (BEAR)
Publication Date: January 28, 2021
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To help elucidate some of the potential impacts and benefits of broader PEV adoption, Clean Transportation: An Economic Assessment of More Inclusive Vehicle Electrification in California, prepared by Berkeley Economic Advising and Research, assesses the economic implications of the projected increase in electric vehicle use with a long-term economic forecasting model. Californians spend about $60 billion on gasoline each year—most of which goes to out-of-state or out-of-country companies. By transitioning to more electric vehicles powered by clean energy, consumers save money and spend those savings in the economy, multiplying the benefit economy-wide to provide a significant boost to service industry spending. To illustrate the economic consequences of different pathways for large-scale vehicle electrification, this report analyzed four different scenarios that assumed different adoption patterns and vehicle costs—using the latest data available to forecast results out to 2050.
The report found that vehicle electrification under the scenario with relatively more conservative cost assumptions would confer significant economic benefits by both 2030 and 2050—resulting in increases to Gross State Product (GSP), employment, real household incomes, and state revenue. These results indicate that wider and more rapid PEV adoption will benefit most Californians—whether they buy a PEV or not—by stimulating the overall economy and reducing harmful criteria pollution. The report also finds that promoting PEV adoption in lower-income communities improves both economic and health benefits to them without significantly reducing benefits to others.