Full Title: Clean Trucks, Big Bucks: California Energy Policy Simulator evaluation of the proposed Advanced Clean Trucks Rule
Author(s): Chris Busch, James Fine, and Amanda Myers
Publisher(s): Energy Innovation Policy & Technology
Publication Date: June 18, 2020
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The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has proposed new zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) requirements through its Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) proceeding. Under the revised proposal released April 28, 2020, the regulation would require about 60 percent of new medium- and heavy-duty trucks sold in California to be ZEVs by 2035. This report evaluates the proposed rule using the California Energy Policy Simulator (EPS). First, we provide an independent check of the conclusions reached in CARB’s regulatory analysis. We modify key variables in the California EPS, drawing on the evidence CARB has collected and find that the effects of the proposed rule are similar to those found in CARB’s analysis. Local and global air pollution benefits are almost indistinguishable, as shown in Table ES-1. The California EPS finds the proposed rule saves $7.3 billion through 2040 compared to the $6.0 billion CARB estimates; variations in how the models treat vehicle cost largely explain this difference. Importantly, savings will continue to accrue beyond 2040, so these findings should be viewed as conservative.