Full Title: Climate Change and International Security: The Arctic as a Bellwether
Author(s): Rob Huebert, Heather Exner-Pirot, Adam Lajeunesse, Jay Gulledge
Publisher(s): Center for Climate and Energy Solutions
Publication Date: May 1, 2012
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As the emerging Arctic security environment is in a very early stage of development, whether it will ultimately be predominantly cooperative or predominantly competitive remains an open question. Although the Arctic states invariably emphasize their desire to maintain a cooperative environment, several have stated that they will defend their national interests in the region if necessary. To gauge the geopolitical winds in the Arctic, this study catalogs and analyzes dozens of major policy statements and actions by the Arctic states, other states with Arctic interests, and multilateral organizations between 2008 and 2012.
As a framework for interpreting the totality of these statements and actions, we compare geopolitical developments to date with three future security scenarios posited by the Arctic Council in its Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009 Report.