Full Title: Consensus on Carbon Dioxide Removal: A Large-Sample Expert Elicitation on the Future of CDR
Author(s): Peter Howard and Derek Sylvan
Publisher(s): Institute for Policy Integrity
Publication Date: July 1, 2024
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Description (excerpt):
Many analysts project that large-scale, widespread carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be necessary to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, and thereby stop exacerbating climate change before United Nations temperature limits are exceeded this century. However, concerns about costs, technological constraints, safety, environmental justice impacts, moral hazard, and other issues contribute to tremendous uncertainty about the future of CDR. Expert elicitation—the process of formally eliciting the views of relevant subject matter experts to gain insight on complex or uncertain topics—can theoretically help clarify consensus on CDR-related issues.
The authors conducted an expert elicitation on issues related to CDR, surveying an interdisciplinary group of 699 researchers who had published at least one article on CDR in a leading academic journal. To the author’s knowledge, this is the largest-ever survey of expert views on negative emissions. Their questions focused on topics including the projected cost and scale of various CDR approaches; key barriers and risks; and desirable policy options.
The author’s survey yielded forecasts and nuance that can complement data from the existing CDR literature.