Full Title: Cost-Effective Planning of Decarbonized Power-Gas Infrastructure to Meet the Challenges of Heating Electrification
Author(s): Rahman Khorramfar, Morgan Santoni-Colvin, Saurabh Amin, Leslie K. Norford, Audun Botterud, and Dharik Mallapragada
Publisher(s): Cell Press
Publication Date: February 6, 2025
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Description (excerpt):
Electrifying building heating by replacing fossil fuel-based technologies with electric alternatives such as heat pumps is crucial to achieving economy-wide decarbonization. However, building electrification introduces new challenges to electric power and gas systems by altering the power-gas consumption patterns and their magnitude. To study this question, the authors develop a two-module modeling framework where (1) the first module quantifies the end-use demand for electric power and gas in residential buildings under various electrification levels, and (2) the second module evaluates the impact of demand changes on power-gas infrastructure investments and operations under deep decarbonization scenarios. The authors apply the framework to the US New England region across 20 weather scenarios and multiple 2050 demand, technology, and decarbonization scenarios. The findings show that the peak and total electricity demand can increase by 56%–158% and 41%–59%, respectively, between high and low electrification levels. Building envelope improvement (adding insulation and sealing air leaks), which improves thermal efficiency, can reduce the magnitude and duration of peak electric demand, as well as annual electric demand.
The study also highlights the importance of joint power-gas infrastructure planning, especially for cold climate regions like New England, where currently natural gas is the prevalent heating fuel and also central to the bulk power supply. Under decarbonization constraints, renewables, like solar, offshore, and onshore wind, are the predominant sources of supply, along with a growing role for energy storage, transmission expansion, and low-carbon firm power generation resources to manage renewables intermittency. Across the scenarios, the cost-effective pathways for system decarbonization involve high electrification scenarios with envelope improvement, which result in 21%–29% lower system costs than the low electrification scenario. Similarly, they find that demand flexibility programs that encourage flexible electric vehicle charging can reduce the total power-gas system cost by up to 6.3%.