Full Title: Credible Pathways to 1.5°C
Author(s): International Energy Agency
Publisher(s): International Energy Agency
Publication Date: April 18, 2023
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To support preparations for upcoming major events such as the COP28 Climate Change Conference, the IEA is releasing Credible Pathways to 1.5 °C: Four pillars for action in the 2020s, a new report on the key actions needed to keep within reach the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C. That possibility is narrowing rapidly, with energy-related CO2 emissions continuing to rise in 2022 despite declining costs for clean energy technologies and the dynamic deployment of renewables, electric cars and other solutions.
Declining costs for clean energy technologies and new policies have shaved around 1 °C from projected 2100 warming compared to the pre‐Paris baseline. The ambitions that countries have put on the table go a significant way to meeting the 1.5 °C goal. If implemented on time and in full, countries’ net zero pledges would be sufficient to hold warming to around 1.7 °C in 2100. The key question is therefore what needs to be done now to strengthen near‐term action to put the world on a credible pathway consistent with the 1.5 °C goal.
A credible pathway to the 1.5 °C goal needs strong, immediate action on each of these four pillars, to deliver immediate and rapid emissions reductions; strong contributions from all countries, especially advanced and major economies; and clear policy signals to enable actors to anticipate and achieve change.