Full Title: Energy Transition Outlook: China 2025
Author(s): DNV
Publisher(s): DNV
Publication Date: April 3, 2025
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Description (excerpt):
No one who has visited China regularly over the past decade or so will have failed to notice the skies above the cities becoming clearer and the streets increasingly filled with electric cars and buses. These are the visible signs of a vast decarbonization effort taking place in China. From a position where, in 2023, China was responsible for a third of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions, by 2050 that share will have reduced to a fifth. In absolute terms, China’s emissions will reduce by a staggering 70%. As they show in this Outlook, this is related mainly to the replacement of coal by renewables in the power mix and the electrification of end-use demand.
In 2022, China was responsible for 35% of solar and 40% of wind power capacity additions globally. Moreover, its
high relative contribution of renewable capacity additions will continue all the way through to mid-century. The rollout of efficient, clean green electricity is not only a boon to the citizens of China but will profoundly impact the global push for clean energy.
Energy independence is the key motivation behind China’s energy policy. DNV finds that this is only partly achieved by mid-century, when China will still be importing sizeable quantities of oil and gas. In their view, there is potential for China to accelerate its transition to reduce its reliance on these sources further and faster — and to bring China closer to net-zero emissions by 2050. That extra push relies to some degree on China’s successful participation in global supply chains for critical inputs into renewable, storage, and transmission technologies.