Full Title: Energy Transition Outlook: Norway 2025
Author(s): DNV
Publisher(s): DNV
Publication Date: April 3, 2025
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
Just as Oslo’s electricity consumption has expanded unimaginably from the perspective of 1900, the whole of Norway’s power consumption has grown enormously, and now extends to the electrification of parts of offshore oil and gas production on the Norwegian continental shelf. Ninety percent of this electricity is still supplied by Norway’s hydropower systems, which have become the envy of nations. However, as shown in this forecast, Norway’s electricity consumption is going to grow in the next 25 years by almost as much as it has over the past 100.
The reason for accelerated electrification in Norway — beyond what can be expected by population and economic growth — is that they are in a race against time to decarbonize their energy use. Norway, in lock step with the EU, has ambitious decarbonization goals and yet, as described, Norway is not on track to achieve either of its 2030 or 2050 emissions targets.
This forecast reveals that Norway faces a looming power deficit such that in the early 2030s it will be importing some 10 TWh of electricity annually. The deficit is the result of hesitation with the buildout of wind power for reasons of cost and public pushback. The assessment made in this forecast is that Norway will overcome this hesitation and go on to build substantial onshore and offshore (both fixed and floating) wind power resources. In doing so, Norway will not only secure sufficient power for domestic needs and industrial growth, but will also be able to resume and indeed grow its power exports — both directly, in the form of electricity, and indirectly in the form of hydrogen. Notably, the forecast shows that Norway will be closer to fulfilling its 2050 emissions target than its 2030 target.