Full Title: IEF Comparative Analysis of Monthly Oil Market Reports (November 2025)
Author(s): IEF
Publisher(s): IEF
Publication Date: November 13, 2025
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
OPEC maintains its global demand growth outlook unchanged at 1.3 mb/d year-on-year this year and approximately 1.4 mb/d in 2026. For 2025, OECD oil demand, OPEC expects this to grow by 0.1 mb/d, while OPEC projects non-OECD demand to rise by a more substantial 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, OECD demand is again forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d, driven primarily by OECD Americas, whereas non-OECD demand is set to expand by more than 1.2 mb/d, led by Other Asia, China, and India.
The EIA modestly raises its full-year global demand growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026, compared with last month’s estimate. The agency now expects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.0 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026. Growth is driven predominantly by non-OECD countries, where the EIA projects consumption to rise by 1.1 mb/d in 2025 and 1.0 mb/d in 2026. In contrast, the EIA expects OECD demand to decline by 0.1 mb/d in 2025, before registering a modest 0.1 mb/d increase in 2026.
The IEA revises its global demand growth forecast upward by 0.1 mb/d year-on-year for both 2025 and 2026, projecting an increase of 0.8 mb/d this year and a further 0.8 mb/d next year. These adjustments are driven by updated estimates for the third and fourth quarters of this year and for 2026, reflecting stronger demand in China, the United States, and Nigeria.
Forecasts from leading agencies continue to diverge, with global demand estimates varying by about 0.5 mb/d in 2025 and 0.6 mb/d in 2026.