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Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study

Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study

Full Title: Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study: Preparing the Grid for Light-, Medium-, and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicles
Author(s): Eric Wood, Brennan Borlaug, Killian McKenna, Jeremy Keen, Bo Liu, Jiayun Sun, Dave Narang, Lawryn Kiboma, Bin Wang, Wanshi Hong, Julieta Giraldez, Chuck Moran, Margot Everett, Trina Horner, Troy Hodges, Noel Crisostomo, and Patrick Walsh
Publisher(s): U.S. Department of Energy
Publication Date: March 1, 2024
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Kevala Inc. (Kevala), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy, conducted this study to help answer key technical and deployment questions about whether the electric grid can accommodate new demands from transportation electrification. This study illuminates, at unprecedented local resolution, the charging network and associated distribution grid infrastructure needed to support increasing plugin electric vehicle (PEV) adoption. In particular, the study examines the anticipated impact of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) rulemakings if finalized as proposed on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty on-road vehicles (LDVs, MDVs, and HDVs, respectively).

This study provides in-depth analysis of PEV charging infrastructure and distribution grid
upgrades for five states: California, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania, which are indicative of a variety of U.S. transportation demand and utility distribution infrastructure. If finalized as proposed, the EPA rules are likely to accelerate the ongoing adoption of PEVs beyond
current policies and incentives. This report provides in-depth analysis of this incremental PEV adoption locally, as well as the investment required in charging infrastructure and distribution grid upgrades that the rules could motivate. As part of the proposed rules, the EPA developed potential modeled compliance pathways describing the potential number of PEVs on the road by 2032, and those pathways are examined in this work. Under the EPA’s projected compliance pathways, an additional 3.9 million PEVs could be on the road by 2032 across the five states under study, bringing the five-state total to 20 million PEVs.

The report provides an in-depth presentation of the inputs, methodology, and context for the analysis. The report also presents key avenues for future work and the context of ongoing investment in charging and distribution infrastructure. The rest of the executive summary provides an overview of the report and more discussion of each of the key findings from the analysis.

All statements and/or propositions in discussion prompts are meant exclusively to stimulate discussion and do not represent the views of, its Partners, Topic Directors or Experts, nor of any individual or organization. Comments by and opinions of Expert participants are their own.

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