Forecasts of Electric Vehicle Penetration and its Impact on Global Oil Demand

The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of global oil demand, with passenger vehicles and trucks making up by far the largest fraction. Many countries with decarbonization goals therefore seek to expand electrification of road transport to meaningfully decrease reliance on this fossil fuel. The degree to which electric vehicle (EV) penetration can alter global oil demand has implications for whether more stringent government decarbonization policies will be needed to reach net zero targets.

This report, part of an oil and gas research initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, compiles medium- and long-term forecasts of …

Electric Highways: Accelerating and Optimizing Fast-Charging Deployment for Carbon-Free Transportation

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption has reached a tipping point. It is now accelerating toward mass market adoption, particularly in states taking proactive measures to encourage transportation electrification. Meeting such targets will require a robust and accessible network of highway stations that provides on-route fast-charging to complement home, workplace, and depot charging. Paired with sales and manufacturing incentives such as those included in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, convenient access to fast-charging will further encourage EV market development and consumer adoption.

The electric grid will be critical to the rollout of fast-charging. Providing timely and sufficient electric service to energize …

Power Projection: Accelerating the Electrification of US Military Ground Vehicles

To date, the US military has been driven by climate imperatives to begin to transition its ground vehicle fleet to electric power (in place of fossil fuels). But just as compelling rationales, if not more so, are the tactical, operational, and strategic advantages offered by electric power for military ground vehicles. This issue brief recommends an aggressive yet phased approach to vehicle electrification that will allow the US ground services to better compete in a future electrified battlefield that will support key elements of the future fight, from artificial intelligence to directed energy. …

Electric Fleets for Arizona

Cities and towns in Arizona spend millions of dollars each year to purchase, fuel and maintain a wide variety of fleet vehicles – sedans, pickup trucks, emergency vehicles, passenger vans, road maintenance vehicles and many more. Nearly all those vehicles are powered by gasoline or diesel fuel, which are costly and contribute to Arizona’s air pollution. Electric vehicles (EVs) can save money for cities and towns because they are cheaper to fuel and to maintain. A rarity just a decade ago, electric vehicles are becoming increasingly affordable and capable, and with automakers introducing new models every year, EVs are becoming …

Electricity Retail Rate Design in a Decarbonizing Economy

Currently, U.S. residential and small commercial electricity consumers typically pay a constant price per kWh consumed that accounts for most of their bill. Ongoing developments in the power system, both on the supply and demand sides, increase efficiency gains that can be made from exposing consumers to widely varying wholesale spot prices. Pure spot pricing is not popular among consumers; consumers value price predictability and bill stability. Also, sudden increases in bills often become a political problem. We focus on second-best alternatives: time-of-use (TOU) and critical peak pricing (CPP). The existing literature has been skeptical about TOU rates, typically finding …

Electric Vehicle Adoption Playbook

If current projections hold, Boston Consulting Group estimates that electric vehicles could create between $3 and $10 billion in new value between now and 2030 for an average energy business with 2 to 3 million customers. This colossal increase represents the most significant opportunity in a generation to increase base demand and margins while simultaneously introducing new utility services like home and public charging infrastructure and bolstering grid reliability and resiliency.

The potential is massive, and at the same time the business transformation required to achieve it is equally large. In less than 10 years, analysts predict 200 million chargers …

Cybersecurity Considerations for Distributed Energy Resources on the U.S. Electric Grid

To address the impacts of climate change, the U.S. electric grid will be undergoing significant changes by integrating clean energy resources such as solar and wind. These efforts will be accelerated with the recent passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. Furthermore, electric customers will continue to adopt intelligent energy devices, including smart lighting and thermostats, which will be able to communicate with rooftop solar, electric vehicles, and more. These efforts will be critical for combating climate change and providing resilience benefits before, during, and after major events. However, as the U.S. electric grid …

Electricity Transmission is Key to Unlock the Full Potential of the Inflation Reduction Act

This report assesses the role of electricity transmission in enabling the full emissions reduction potential of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Previously, REPEAT Project estimated that IRA could cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by roughly one billion tons per year in 2030 and reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions by 6.3 billion tons of CO2-equivalent over the decade (2023-2032). That outcome depends on more than doubling the historical pace of electricity transmission expansion over the last decade in order to interconnect new renewable resources at sufficient pace and meet growing demand from electric vehicles, heat pumps, and other electrification.

While our …

Estimating the Impacts of Direct-to-Consumer Electric Vehicle Sales

While there is some available research on the impact of direct-to-consumer sales models on EV buying experiences, the impacts of direct-to-consumer sales laws on EV sales and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are understudied. This study examines a narrow policy case where the laws mandating vehicle sales through the dealer model are removed nationwide, but only for EV sales—gasoline vehicles must still be sold through dealerships. This policy approach selectively reduces EV prices relative to gasoline vehicles, causing an effective subsidy by eliminating dealer distribution costs for EVs. We estimate the additional EV sales and associated GHG emissions reductions attributable to …

Electric Vehicle Managed Charging: Forward-Looking Estimates of Bulk Power System Value

When and where electric vehicle (EV) charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread EV adoption, especially with high shares of wind and solar generation. Numerous studies have estimated the value of scheduling or otherwise managing electric vehicle charging in such power systems. This study improves on those works by leveraging detailed simulation models for EV adoption, EV use, EV charging, and bulk power system operations, and by linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels.

This technical potential study focuses on how the value of EV managed charging (EVMC) …