National Transmission Planning Study

Improving and expanding electric transmission infrastructure in the U.S. is critical to ensuring consumers across the country have access to reliable, affordable power when and where they need it and to enable us to integrate new, clean sources of energy generation into the grid. To understand the transformation needed to ensure the U.S. electric transmission system continues to reliably serve the nation’s electricity customers as the power sector evolves and transitions to cleaner resources, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Grid Deployment Office led the multiyear National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) …

Regionalizing Transition Intelligence

Financial institutions face a critical challenge in assessing corporate transition planning: the absence of regional context. Although climate targets and decarbonization strategies are increasingly common in corporate disclosures, they often overlook the local economic, policy, and infrastructure conditions that shape the pace and feasibility of transition. This disconnect limits the usefulness of assessments, hindering the ability of financial institutions to effectively manage climate-related risks and opportunities.…

Recalibrating the Role of Banks in the Energy Transition

We are at an important inflection point in climate finance. Net-zero aligned targets set with good intentions are now met with challenges from all sides — technical, economic, legal, and reputational. While some fear a retreat in ambition, we see this as an opportunity to check our assumptions, ask better questions, and ultimately chart a new path forward. We need a recalibration — one that will ensure that the role of banks in the energy transition is rightsized to focus on deals, not just disclosure.

In the last decade, banks have overhauled governance, launched net-zero strategies, and built internal capability …

Understanding the Scaling of Transport Energy Use with Operational Density

Given the substantial contribution of transport operations to global energy demand, enhancing their energy efficiency is crucial for sustainable urban mobility. This study investigates whether intensifying the use of fixed transport networks, termed operational densification, reduces energy consumption. Grounded in economic theory, we develop a novel causal model to estimate the energy impacts of densification across two major commuting modes: urban rail transit (metro) and private car travel. Using a unique panel dataset of 27 metro operations worldwide, we find that a 10% increase in passenger-kilometres travelled on a fixed network reduces energy use per passenger-kilometre by 3.45%. These gains …

Opportunities for Decentralised Solar Power to Improve Reliability, Reduce Emissions and Avoid Stranded Assets

Despite recent improvements to electricity access in lower-income countries, reliability remains low for many. Local renewable electricity infrastructure supplementing the national grid offers a promising route to improved reliability for rural communities. However, improvements in the reliability of national grids create risks for investors including the possibility of “stranded” renewable assets. We use energy-system modelling to explore ways in which solar photovoltaic (PV)-based mini-grids could be interconnected with national grids. We explore the impact of reduced electricity demand to quantify the investment risks of losing customers. Our results indicate that national grid–connected mini-grids can reduce the unit electricity costs for …

Electric Transmission Value and Its Drivers in United States Power Markets

Electric transmission infrastructure plays a vital role during extreme weather and supply disruptions and can enable low-cost electricity systems. This paper contributes to a more complete understanding of the value and cost-effectiveness of transmission, as well as barriers to its development. By studying wholesale energy market prices in the United States between 2012 and 2022, we find that additional transfer capacity between regions would have been especially valuable, with a median value of $116 million per GW per year. This capacity would often have provided balanced benefits to each region. The market value of transmission was highly influenced by a …

Embodied Carbon Pathways to 2050 for the United States

Embodied carbon ‒ the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated by the manufacturing, transportation, installation, maintenance, and disposal of construction materials used in buildings, roads, and other infrastructure ‒ is a critical and often overlooked solution for addressing climate change.…

Grid Congestion Stymies Climate Benefit from U.S. Vehicle Electrification

Averting catastrophic global warming requires decisive action to decarbonize key sectors. Vehicle electrification, alongside renewable energy integration, is a long-term strategy toward zero carbon emissions. However, transitioning to fully renewable electricity may take decades—during which electric vehicles may still rely on carbon-intensive electricity. We analyze the critical role of the transmission network in enabling or constraining emissions reduction from U.S. vehicle electrification. Our models reveal that the available transmission capacity severely limits potential CO₂ emissions reduction. With adequate transmission, full electrification could nearly eliminate vehicle operational CO₂emissions once renewable generation reaches the existing nonrenewable capacity. In contrast, …

Build AI in America

Building AI in the United States is a national security and economic imperative. As AI systems grow more capable, the energy and computational requirements to train and deploy frontier AI are surging. Recent estimates by outside experts and our own research at Anthropic suggest that the U.S. AI sector is on track to require at least 50 gigawatts of electric capacity by 2028, much of which will be needed to train the world’s most capable models.

America has the economic strength and technical expertise to meet these needs. But doing so will require addressing regulatory challenges—as well as supply chain, …

Classifying electric vehicle adopters and forecasting progress to full adoption

Electric light-duty vehicle sales are increasing, but adoption is not uniform. Forecasting who is adopting and when is crucial to planning infrastructure, creating incentives, and ensuring equity. We identify different clusters of adopters in California, examine adoption rates within them, and forecast adoption trajectories. Clusters are classified by revealed characteristics using results from a multi-year survey of 18,921 plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adopters. Eight clusters are identified: four each among single-vehicle and multi-vehicle households. We classify the population into these segments and simulate future PEV adoption using Bass diffusion. We compare adoption trajectories—assuming current rates of adoption, a scenario of …