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Power Surge: Navigating US Electricity Demand Growth

Power Surge: Navigating US Electricity Demand Growth

Full Title: Power Surge: Navigating US Electricity Demand Growth
Author(s): Shankar Chandramowli, Patty Cook, Justin Mackovyak, Himali Parmar, and Maria Scheller
Publisher(s): ICF
Publication Date: October 22, 2024
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):

For the past two decades, U.S. electricity demand growth rates remained relatively flat. Utilities have traditionally helped manage electricity demand and peak electricity demand through forward planning and demand side management (DSM) programs that proactively manage customer energy use. However, the U.S. now faces a sudden surge in electricity demand that requires new management strategies amid utilities’ efforts to lead a clean energy transition.

This report leverages ICF’s cloud-based renewable energy analytics platform, EnergyInsite, to measure and map electricity demand growth across the U.S. and the constraints to addressing demand. ICF finds that by 2028, U.S. electricity demand could increase by an average of 9% while peak demand for electricity could increase by an average of 5%. By 2050, electricity demand could rise by 57%.

New sources of electricity supply—including utility scale solar and wind power—could theoretically meet this expected demand growth. But there are significant constraints to building new generation resources, including an electric grid in need of upgrades, slow approvals for new clean electricity projects, and finding suitable locations to build additional clean energy infrastructure.

The rise in electricity demand combined with the nexus of generation, transmission, distribution, regulatory, and policy constraints could slow the transition to clean, reliable, and affordable electricity. They find that the cost many utilities pay for electricity could increase by an average of 19% by 2028 due to the demand increase. Much of the additional costs would be passed on to utility customers. This report offers six key recommendations for
utilities to stay one step ahead of demand growth and electricity supply constraints while navigating the clean energy transition.

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