Full Title: Preliminary Report: The Climate and Energy Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
Author(s): Jesse D. Jenkins, Erin N. Mayfield, Jamil Farbes, Ryan Jones, Neha Patankar, Qingyu Xu and Greg Schivley
Publisher(s): Princeton University Zero Lab
Publication Date: August 8, 2022
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This report describes the national-scale energy system and greenhouse gas emissions impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as released by the Senate Democratic Leadership on July 27, 2022. The report also reflects prior REPEAT Project analysis of the impacts of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA, H.R. 3684), which was signed into law in November 2021, and the Build Back Better Act (BBBA, H.R. 5376), which passed the House of Representatives on November 19, 2021. All results for IRA and BBBA include impacts from enactment of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (IIJA).
The report also presents two ‘benchmark’ scenarios: Frozen Policies, which captures the impacts of state and federal policies and regulations as of the start of the 117th Congress and inauguration of President Biden in January 2021; and Net-Zero Pathway, a cost-optimized pathway to reduce economy-wide U.S. greenhouse gas emissions 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero by 2050. This report contains macro-energy system modeling results including impact on greenhouse gas emissions, a break-down of sectoral reductions, and estimated impacts on U.S. energy expenditures and capital investment in energy supply infrastructure. The report also discusses the impact of variation in future U.S. oil and gas production on U.S. emissions and exports.
Given the preliminary nature of this analysis and significant uncertainty about future outcomes, all results in this report should be considered approximate and may be updated or refined by subsequent analysis.