Full Title: Retaining Diablo Canyon: Economic, Carbon, and Reliability Implications
Author(s): Sam Newell, Wonjun Chang, Ragini Sreenath, Dean Murphy
Publisher(s): Brattle Group
Publication Date: June 9, 2022
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California’s SB 100 bill has committed the state to decarbonize its power grid, with a goal of 60% renewable energy by 2030 and 100% clean electric retail sales by 2045. Plans and resource procurements are falling into place to pursue those goals, including through the California Public Utilities Commission’s (CPUC’s) recent Mid-Term Reliability Procurement Order and the ongoing Integrated Resource Plan and Long Term Procurement Plan.
Using Brattle’s gridSIM model, we then compare the world with such an investment to one without. gridSIM is a state-of-the-art electricity capacity expansion and operations simulation model comparable to RESOLVE. We start with a base case benchmarked to the 2021 SB 100 Joint Agency Report’s “Core Scenario,” updated for Mid-Term Reliability Procurement Order and the 2021 Preferred System Plan (PSP). That case shows how California could achieve its goals through 2045 without retaining Diablo, under numerous assumptions of the ability to develop adequate solar, wind, battery, and other resources. We also examine an alternative scenario where clean resources are more limited.