Full Title: Strategic Industries Surging: Driving US Power Demand
Author(s): John D. Wilson, Zach Zimmerman, and Rob Gramlich
Publisher(s): Clean Grid Initiative
Publication Date: December 22, 2024
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
Over the past two years, the 5-year load growth forecast has increased by almost a factor of five, from 23 GW to 128 GW, including Grid Strategies’ estimate of recent update reports.
• The official nationwide forecast of electricity demand shot up from 2.8% to 8.2% growth over the next five years to 66 GW through 2029 — but with an additional 61 GW of growth in preliminary updates, nationwide electric demand is forecast to increase by 15.8% by 2029.
• While some of the additional growth merely reflects corrections to last year’s incomplete forecast update, major changes have occurred in several regions. In particular, Texas (ERCOT) has recently added about 37 GW to its 2029 forecast – resulting in an updated forecast of 43 GW in load growth through 2029.
The main drivers are investment in data centers and manufacturing. High-end sector forecasts suggest current load forecasts may not have caught up with growth.
• Data center growth forecasts vary, with some tech industry analysts anticipating growth of 65 GW, while updated utility forecasts suggest over 90 GW.
• Manufacturing demand forecasts are unavailable – indicators suggest up to 20 GW growth.
• Other sources of load growth, including electrification, could be another 20 GW.