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X-change: Cars

X-change: Cars

Full Title: X-change: Cars
Author(s): Kingsmill Bond, Sam Butler-Sloss, Daan Walter, Harry Benham, Edward J. Klock-McCook, Dave Mullaney, Yuki Numata, Laurens Speelman, Clay Stranger, and Nigel Topping
Publisher(s): Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI)
Publication Date: September 10, 2023
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):

The second report of the X-change series was produced by RMI in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund and is a contribution to Systems Change Lab. These reports analyze the exponential growth of renewable energy technologies, demonstrating why and how major areas of the global energy system are achieving faster change than many realize.

In X-change: Cars, RMI shows that the rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) means that global oil demand for cars has already peaked and will be in freefall by 2030. The end of the internal combustible engine (ICE) age has begun.

There is a clear exponential growth pattern for EVs, as rising sales track along an S-curve. Led by Northern Europe and China, and driven by policy, it is taking around six years for EVs to go from 1% to 10% of new car sales. The next stage is quicker still: In leading countries, it is taking another six years to get to 80%.

The new driver of change is economics. Because battery costs enjoy learning curves, total cost of ownership price parity has been reached, and sticker price parity will be reached in every major car market and segment by the end of the decade. That will enable the revolution to widen across the Global South and deepen into other transport sectors.

By 2030, EVs will dominate global car sales. If we continue to solve the challenges and sales continue up the S-curves, then EVs will make up between 62% and 86% of global car sales by 2030, with China enjoying an EV market share of at least 90%. Meanwhile, consensus sales forecasts are lagging and get upgraded every year

All statements and/or propositions in discussion prompts are meant exclusively to stimulate discussion and do not represent the views of, its Partners, Topic Directors or Experts, nor of any individual or organization. Comments by and opinions of Expert participants are their own.

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