Full Title: Tracking intended nationally determined contributions: what are the implications for greenhouse gas emissions in 2030?
Author(s): Rodney Boyd, Joe Cranston Turner and Bob Ward
Publisher(s): Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and London School of Economics Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy
Publication Date: 08/2015
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Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed at the 20th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP20) in Lima, Peru, in December 2014 to set out their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) ahead of COP21 in Paris, France, in December 2015. It was further agreed that each of these INDCs will “represent a progression beyond the current undertaking of that Party”.
The INDCs that were submitted by 20 July 2015 included an indication of expected annual greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2020 (many Parties provided information about their expected annual emissions in 2020 following COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December 20092). Hence, these INDCs can be analysed to provide an indication of whether intended action by countries is collectively consistent with the decision, agreed at COP16 in Cancún, Mexico, in 2010, which states it “recognizes that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2°C above preindustrial levels, and that Parties should take urgent action to meet this long-term goal, consistent with science and on the basis of equity”.