Full Title: U.S. Coal Competitive in Global Markets: Domestic Production Forecast to Rebound
Author(s): By James Wang, Jeffrey Archibald, and Judah Rose
Publisher(s): ICF International
Publication Date: February 1, 2014
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
This ICF International white paper examines ICF’s forecast of an end to the decline in U.S. coal production. Key topics include:
- Proposed Pacific Northwest and Gulf Coast coal export terminal growth
- Pacific Basin demand for coal
- Comparison of delivered coal prices to Japan
- Pacific Basin thermal coal market competition
- New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for CO2 emissions applied to existing coal power plants
- Natural gas market competition
The forecast maintains that 2014 will be the nadir for producers and that both domestic and foreign demand will pick up steam to stabilize the business. Demand for the next decade should average approximately 1,000 million short tons per year. The two biggest drivers of contraction—low natural gas prices driving coal-to-gas switching and U.S. Environmental Agency (EPA) CO2 emissions regulations—are likely to weigh less on the coal sector moving forward.