President-elect Donald Trump has only vaguely defined his plans for energy policy, via his website and campaign statements and tweets. As a result, one can only speculate what changes to expect from Trump energy policies.
Nevertheless, a recent report by S&P Global Platts aimed to predict how electricity will be generated under Trump energy policies. The analysis assumed Trump would allow subsidies for renewable energy to continue their scheduled scale down through 2020, and enact no new policies to support wind or solar. This is consistent with recent reporting indicating that Trump does not plan to act against renewable energy tax credits. Platts also assumed Trump will follow through on his vow to repeal the Clean Power Plan (CPP), which aims to curb greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.
Even without the CPP or new federal policies, Platts projects wind and solar will continue to gain market share. Renewables are expected to reach 21 percent of power generation by 2027, propelled by falling prices, existing tax credits and state policies supporting renewable energy. Utilities are expected to retire a significant portion of coal generation capacity, as coal struggles to compete with natural gas and renewables. Despite Trump’s vow to bring back coal jobs, it is unclear how he would avert closures of uncompetitive coal plants, most of which are over 40 years old.
This new administration comes at a pivotal time for both national and global efforts to address climate change. Climate negotiations are currently underway in Morocco to flesh out details of how Paris Agreement commitments will be achieved. So far, countries such as China have reaffirmed their resolve to act on climate, despite Trump’s vow to renegotiate the Paris Agreement and his claims that climate change is a “hoax.” Nevertheless, the decisions of the next administration will reverberate across energy and climate policies both nationally and globally long after President-elect Trump leaves office.
I think renewables will continue to gain market share in the power generation market as they become more competitive and the states continue to pursue their own goals I think… Read more »
I agree with your first two points. I would expect domestic drilling to be affected more by international markets (i.e., price of oil) than government actions.
President elect Trump is first a business man who wants to make America Great Again. When he is made aware that increasing energy efficiency creates jobs and is good for… Read more »
I question whether we’re close to finding “affordable Carbon Capture Utilization technologies”. Even where the CO2 is sold for enhanced oil recovery, the capture is far too costly to be viable in… Read more »
Hi Daniel In our CCU System we do not require a lot of power plant steam to strip the CO2 nor a lot of power plant power to cool and… Read more »
This early in an Administration, it is extremely early to accurately predict anything. Since the incoming Trump Administration is clear that it will ardently support and accelerate fracking for oil… Read more »
I agree with you that the Clean Power Plan is on track to being met ahead of schedule: http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/270544-achieving-clean-power-plan-targets-well-ahead-of The main risk of abandoning the CPP is if natural gas prices rise,… Read more »
The question of what happens to coal if natural gas prices rise is an interesting one. I think it an unlikely scenario given Trump’s support for fracking, but there are… Read more »
I agree with you that new coal power plants won’t be built — they are too costly to compete with natural gas, wind, or solar, and face huge risks if… Read more »
One clarification on MATS: I don’t know the rules on exemptions or timelines for compliance, but my understanding was that there are multiple plants that have not yet complied with… Read more »
I must admit that I am not all that upset that the CPP would be scrapped. It is far too awkward, bureaucratic and inefficent. We clearly most deal with climate… Read more »
Thanks to President Obama we now have a seat at the table when it comes to the large international effort to deal with climate change. Why give up that seat… Read more »
Indeed, many already see China as the leader in climate change reform, as the U.S. abrogates its role: http://www.salon.com/2016/11/15/china-is-now-the-global-leader-in-climate-change-reform/
[…] associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University and a contributor to OurEnergyPolicy.org, said that any of the three candidates would be a huge step down from… Read more »
The incoming Trump Administration will have some conflicting goals with traditional energy sources. They will surely promote natural gas and expand fracking, which will mean there will be more available… Read more »
I am sure that the new teams will want to do as you say , and that there will be plenty of arguments ahead, but take a look at Ivy… Read more »