Many are familiar with peak oil theory — the idea that global oil production will hit a ceiling and then decline — yet the concept of peak oil demand, where demand will plateau before supply, appears to be replacing this controversial hypothesis. Amy Myers Jaffe, Executive Director of Energy and Sustainability at UC Davis, recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal that a combination of technical, economic, environmental and demographic shifts could lead to peak global oil demand in the next two decades. By contrast, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that global oil demand will rise from 87 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 119 mbpd by 2040. A growing number of experts, and even oil companies, are beginning to reconsider what Jaffe calls the conventional wisdom surrounding growth in demand.
According to the EIA, demand for oil has already peaked in major, industrialized nations. The critical issue is whether this will be offset by a growing appetite for oil in the developing world. EIA projections are fueled by emerging economies in China, India and the Middle East. Yet the most recent outlooks from both BP and Exxon Mobil suggest that demand for oil in these regions will slow considerably by 2035, casting doubt on whether emerging economies will compensate for lagging demand in the industrialized world.
Peak demand for petroleum looks likely and may be one of the reasons for cheap crude, along with the shale oil glut. Other than pumping refinery feedstock out of the… Read more »
Wouldn’t an energy economist always say that there is an interaction between supply and demand? I come at this from a “peak oiler” perspective, but as someone who also works… Read more »
First, the concept of peak oil demand predates Amy Jaffe’s WSJ article by years if not decades. It is more carefully understood as a fairly noticeable deceleration in oil demand… Read more »
First of all I think anyone, including me, who makes a solid prediction is not unlikely to be proven wrong. Given that, I do like the presentation above by Brecha… Read more »
I will assume the author is referring to demand fossil fuel oil. There are many ways to make low-carbon liquid fuels and, hopefully, we will see a growth in their… Read more »
The Saudi’s seem to think so. Quite likely why they won’t cut production.
I think we are failing to recognize the influence of of technology on the recent dramatic plateauing of *demand*. This is the case in the U.S. and the rest of… Read more »
A demand peak seems implicitly to assume rising oil prices. Almost since the dawn of the oil age, people have been predicting that oil resource depletion will outrun progress in… Read more »
Not sure it does assume rising oil prices. There are some very rapid cost declines in happing with alternative technologies. Also, despite being an amazing fuel in terms of utility… Read more »
Mr. Hinckley brings up the most important and fundamental metric for any would-be energy source: EROI. However, the 2012 data linked for petroleum is dated and off the mark. EROI… Read more »
Peak oil …. evidently Bush and Cheney saw our American oil output declining. Their response was to find a way to increase supply here at home, a response that gave… Read more »
I agree with the large majority of contributors above that demand for oil will indeed peak in the (relatively) near future, at a level well below the EIA projection (not… Read more »
This topic has already been well covered by other contributors. I’d like to add a few points on the scale of the challenge. In 2014, demand for oil… Read more »
The most important historical fact is that in all sectors except transportation, peak oil is in our rear view mirror. Since 1970 oil has lost most of its market share… Read more »