We develop estimates of future spending and savings for energy efficiency programs funded by electric and gas utility customers for three scenarios that capture a range of state policy and program spending paths through 2025. Our analysis relies on a detailed bottom-up modeling approach of state energy efficiency policies, regulatory decisions, and utility resource and demand-side management plans. Spending on efficiency programs is projected to more than double from 2010 levels to $10.8 billion in 2025 in the medium scenario, which is premised largely on compliance with existing energy efficiency policies, and would more than triple to $16.8 billion in the high case scenario. Spending on electric efficiency programs comprises about 80% of total spending; increases in electric program spending are driven primarily by regulatory and utility compliance with statewide legislative or regulatory savings targets (61%). Our analysis suggests that efficiency spending will assume a more even geographic distribution over time. Assuming public projections of slow economic recovery and demand growth are borne out, our results suggest that energy savings from these programs could nullify the majority of annual U.S. electric load growth sometime before 2025. Achieving these savings is subject to significant uncertainties. Our analysis indicates that administrators of gas energy efficiency programs will have difficulties meeting more aggressive state savings targets, but electricity programs will sustain sufficient spending growth to more than compensate for an expected plateau in gas program spending. This paper underscores the policy and market influences, uncertainties, and challenges that programs face.