Full Title: PARTY POLARIZATION ON ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES: Toward Prospects for Change
Author(s): David Karol
Publisher(s): Niskanen Center
Publication Date: May 1, 2018
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Description (excerpt):
In American politics, a growing partisan divide on the environment is making environmental reforms seem
further out of reach. In this research paper, scorecards from the League of Conservation Voters are used to
examine the growth of this divide between the 91st and 114th Congresses, revealing a sorting of Members of
Congress into strong anti- and pro-environment positioning along party lines. The paper examines how
shifting constituencies, party geography, and personal characteristics have affected the positions taken by
members of Congress, finding that the role of party affiliation in determining environmental scores has
grown continuously since the late 1970s.
In the second part, the paper examines how this partisan gap may be eroded by changing demographics,
industry influence, and shifts in coalitional dynamics affecting Republican Members of Congress’ stances on
climate change. The role of present-day coalitions in determining politicians’ preferences will only hold as
long as political costs remain small. If political costs were to rise, then coalitional allies would likely follow
Members of Congress to more pro-environmental positions. Anticipating such a shift, some Republicans may
take forward positions on environmental issues to gather a reputation for issue leadership and distinguishing
media attention. The growth in the number of Republican members of the bipartisan Climate Solutions
Caucus in the House of Representatives may indicate that Members of Congress are taking such enterprising
actions.