Full Title: A Quantitative Analysis of Variables Affecting Power Transmission Infrastructure Projects in the US
Author(s): Lewis (Zhaoyu) Wu, Abraham Silverman, Harrison Fell, and James Glynn
Publisher(s): Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA
Publication Date: April 5, 2024
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
Upgrading the US electric grid is vital to a successful energy transition. Transmission expansion lowers electricity costs for consumers; speeds deployment of new generation resources; provides economic opportunities for communities; increases system reliability, particularly in the face of extreme weather events; and enables large-scale transfers of power from areas of the country with high renewable energy potential to customers. But experience over the past twenty years has shown that new transmission projects often face extensive delays, impeding or even denying these potential benefits to consumers and communities. In response, policymakers at the state and federal level are considering reforms to transmission finance, cost allocation, siting and permitting, advanced technologies, and other areas to help jumpstart the United States’ currently moribund transmission expansion processes.
The wide variation in the way utilities are regulated and transmission planning processes are implemented across the United States further compounds the difficulty of evaluating the relative effectiveness of different transmission planning policies.
This report applies a data-driven approach to this policy debate. Using statistical analysis and machine learning models to analyze a dataset from the data company MAPSearch of planned transmission projects of at least 100 kilovolts (kV) conceived between 2005 and 2023, which includes more than 1,300 transmission projects, the report provides a systematic assessment of the impact of key variables on the likelihood that a proposed transmission line will actually be built. The results of this assessment can help those interested in expanding transmission infrastructure understand which variables may be worth prioritizing in a particular geographical area or region, given its unique combination of attributes, needs, and challenges.