Full Title: API Industry Outlook, Q4 2022
Author(s): R. Dean Foreman
Publisher(s): American Petroleum Institute
Publication Date: December 15, 2022
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
Economy: IMF and Bloomberg consensus expectations have dropped but still imply likely higher demand for oil and natural gas in 2023 and 2024
- • Weakened and uneven consumer conditions have prompted concerns for a recession in 2023, led by the U.S. and Europe
- • Strong U.S. dollar appreciation has added stress to many emerging market economies
- • Global population milestone of 8.0 billion amplifies energy, food, environmental issues
Oil: Strong global demand coupled with supply challenges has been partially assuaged by releases of government-controlled reserves, which are slated to end
- • Global oil demand expected to tie a record-high 100.8 mb/d in 2023 per EIA
- • Global oil drilling fell by 11.4% in Nov. 2022 compared with Nov. 2019 per Baker Hughes
- • U.S. oil-directed rig productivity fell by nearly 20% y/y in Oct. per EIA, while the historical production boost from drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) disappeared
- • U.S. oil production resilience requires greater participation by CO, NM, ND, and WY
- • With continued work force, supply chain, financial, and policy headwinds, IEA, the KSA, and OPEC have said that global oil investment and spare capacity could struggle to meet demand in 2023
Natural gas: Resilient U.S. natural gas production could serve as a model for oil
- • Record U.S. natural gas production in Nov. 2022 with growth led by Louisiana and Texas
- • U.S. spot prices fell despite record-high natural gas exports