Full Title: Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office
Author(s): Chad Augustine, Sarah Fisher, Jonathan Ho, Ian Warren, and Erik Witter
Publisher(s): National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Publication Date: January 22, 2024
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots™ initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications.
The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, they updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions for EGS based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis.
They used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the U.S. by 2050 using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model. In keeping with Earthshot’s goals, the baseline modeling assumptions and targets use the Solar Futures Study Decarbonization scenario. This scenario targets a 95% reduction in electric sector-wide CO2 emissions from 2005 levels by 2035, and a 100% reduction by 2050, and assumes constant existing policies as of June 2020. The ReEDS model assumes that EGS technologies become available for commercial deployment starting in 2030.