Full Title: Estimating the Impacts of Direct-to-Consumer Electric Vehicle Sales
Author(s): James Di Filippo and Tom Taylor
Publisher(s): Atlas Public Policy
Publication Date: September 20, 2022
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Description (excerpt):
While there is some available research on the impact of direct-to-consumer sales models on EV buying experiences, the impacts of direct-to-consumer sales laws on EV sales and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are understudied. This study examines a narrow policy case where the laws mandating vehicle sales through the dealer model are removed nationwide, but only for EV sales—gasoline vehicles must still be sold through dealerships. This policy approach selectively reduces EV prices relative to gasoline vehicles, causing an effective subsidy by eliminating dealer distribution costs for EVs. We estimate the additional EV sales and associated GHG emissions reductions attributable to this policy change.
We find that an EV-only direct-to-consumer sales policy could potentially increase EV adoption between 2023 and 2030 by between 360,000 and 3.9 million units (1-13% increase) with a medium case increase of about 1.4 million (5% increase). That translates to a cumulative GHG reduction benefit between 11 and 117 million metric tons of CO2e with a medium case of 42 million metric tons.