Full Title: Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System
Author(s): Daniel C. Steinberg, Maxwell Brown, Ryan Wiser, Paul Donohoo-Vallett, Pieter Gagnon, Anne Hamilton, Matthew Mowers, Caitlin Murphy, and Ashreeta Prasana
Publisher(s): National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Publication Date: March 20, 2023
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Description (excerpt):
In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL.
We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing net-costs, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. In addition, we show that while the IRA and BIL provisions modeled drive increased clean electricity and associated emissions reductions across all future conditions analyzed, if projected clean electricity technology cost and performance improvements are not realized and/or barriers to deployment of clean electricity or supporting infrastructure (such as transmission) are not mitigated, then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.