Full Title: Taking Stock 2022: US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Outlook in an Uncertain World
Author(s): Ben King, Hannah Kolus, Naveen Dasari, Emily Wimberger, Whitney Herndon, Eric O’Rear, Alfredo Rivera, John Larsen and Kate Larsen
Publisher(s): Rhodium Group
Publication Date: July 14, 2022
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For the past eight years, Rhodium Group has provided an independent annual assessment of US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and progress towards achieving the country’s climate goals in our Taking Stock report series. Each year, we research trends in the key drivers of US GHG emissions—including technology cost and performance advancements, changes in energy markets, policy developments, and expectations for the economy—and estimate a range of emissions outcomes based on these trends.
Given these trends and current federal and state policies in force as of June 2022, we find that the US is on track to reduce emissions 24% to 35% below 2005 levels by 2030, absent any additional policy action. This falls significantly short of the US’s pledge under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030. These estimates represent a rosier outlook for emissions reductions compared to Taking Stock 2021 (which estimated a 17-30% reduction by 2030 under current policy), but this change is largely attributable to slower macroeconomic growth projections and higher fossil fuel prices—not large policy changes. Even by 2035, GHG emissions remain stubbornly high at 26% to 41% below 2005 levels.