Full Title: The Energy Security Scenarios Summary
Author(s): Shell scenarios
Publisher(s): Shell
Publication Date: April 15, 2023
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):
What we present here are scenarios. To get the most from them, it is important to know what these are and what they are not. Scenarios are an exploration of how the world could possibly evolve under different sets of assumptions. They are informed by data, constructed using models and contain insights from leading experts in the relevant fields.
As the security mindset dominates, national interests take precedence within political agendas. These agendas are shaped by energy prices, supply concerns and growing climate pressures. In this landscape, a tension becomes evident between what was promised to the world in Glasgow and what nations must do to calm immediate energy concerns.
Two scenarios emerge from the turmoil: Archipelagos and Sky 2050. The Archipelagos scenario seeks to follow a possible path from where the world was in 2022, while Sky 2050 takes a normative approach that starts with a desired outcome and works backwards to explore how that outcome could be achieved. In the case of Sky 2050, the future it is aimed at is a world that achieves two key things: net-zero emissions by 2050 and global warming limited to 1.5°C by the end of the century.