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The Future of Nuclear Power After Fukushima

The Future of Nuclear Power After Fukushima

Full Title: The Future of Nuclear Power After Fukushima
Author(s): Paul L. Joskow and John E. Parsons
Publisher(s): MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research
Publication Date: February 1, 2012
Full Text: Download Resource
Description (excerpt):

This paper analyzes the impact of the Fukushima accident on the future of nuclear  power around the world. We begin with a discussion of the ‘but for’ baseline and the  much discussed ‘nuclear renaissance.’ Our pre-Fukushima benchmark for growth in  nuclear generation in the U.S. and other developed countries is much more modest than  many bullish forecasts of a big renaissance in new capacity may have suggested. For at  least the next decade in developed countries, it is composed primarily of life extensions  for many existing reactors, modest uprates of existing reactors as their licenses are  extended, and modest levels of new construction. The majority of forecasted new  construction is centered in China, Russia and the former states of the FSU, India and  South Korea. In analyzing the impact of Fukushima, we break the effect down into two  categories: the impact on existing plants, and the impact on the construction of new units.  In both cases, we argue that the accident at Fukushima will contribute to a reduction in  future trends in the expansion of nuclear energy, but at this time these effects appear to be  quite modest at the global level.

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