Many people are hoping for wind and solar PV to transform grid electricity in a favorable way. Is this really possible? Is it really feasible for intermittent renewables to generate a large share of grid electricity? The answer increasingly looks as if it is, “No, the costs are too great, and the return on investment would be way too low.” We are already encountering major grid problems, even with low penetrations of intermittent renewable electricity, which in the U.S. was 5.4% of 2015 electricity consumption.
In fact, I have come to the rather astounding conclusion that even if wind turbines and solar PV could be built at zero cost, it would not make sense to continue to add them to the electric grid in the absence of very much better and cheaper electricity storage than we have today. There are too many costs outside building the devices themselves. It is these secondary costs that are problematic. Also, intermittent electricity sold in competitive markets (such as California and Texas) tends to lead to very low wholesale electricity prices. Other electricity providers need to be compensated for the effects these low prices cause; otherwise they will leave the market. The tiny contribution of wind and solar to grid electricity cannot make up for the loss of more traditional electricity sources due to low prices.
Numerous states around the country have implemented renewable energy standards, many without taking a very close look at what the costs and benefits were likely to be. A few simple calculations were made, such as “Life Cycle Assessment” and “Energy Returned on Energy Invested.” These calculations miss the fact that the intermittent energy being returned is of very much lower quality than is needed to operate the electric grid. They also miss the point that timing and the cost of capital are very important, as is the impact on the pricing of other energy products.
Of course it is possible for renewables to supply a large share of grid electricity. It is being done today in Denmark (>30%), Germany, and elsewhere, and Denmark is moving… Read more »
I am talking about intermittent renewables-primarily wind and solar PV. These are the problems. Electricity from hydroelectric and from burning wood chips or waste are not problems. You need to… Read more »
Gail: It is true that intermittent renewables have there own set of challenges and costs for utilities. But we should not be looking at this issue from only the utilities’… Read more »
Yes, it is feasible to achieve our carbon and clean energy goals, but we need to get real about integration, the scale of the need and start planning now for… Read more »
Storage helps, but it doesn’t solve all energy problems. There is substantial seasonality in both electricity energy production and electricity energy usage. For example, hydroelectric is available to the greatest… Read more »
Gail you are correct as far as you go but there are sources of renewable energy that are available 24/7/52 with almost no disruptions. The problem is that these sources… Read more »
In some sense this is a silly conversation. It’s like saying, as some scientists do, that a bumblebee cannot fly. But they do. As Dan Miller points out, renewables are… Read more »
I think that there are several things you are forgetting. Even if it looks like we can get 80% of our electricity from intermittent renewables, we still need close to… Read more »
“renewables are providing very large proportions of total electricity in a number of locations.” Please name any nations that satisfy your claim. We need to clear up confusion in the… Read more »
Denmark. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Denmark “Denmark has a target of producing 30% of all its energy needs from RE energy sources by 2020, a considerable increase from the 17% it attained in 2005.[2]… Read more »
Dan, thank you for continuing to hold up Denmark as an example. It is useful to consider what is really happening there, as there is something rotten about the renewable… Read more »
The point you’re trying to raise, Gail, is a valid one. Unfortunately, it’s not coming through. The problem is the vagueness inherent in the first question. There’s no consensus on just what… Read more »
I think I have seen the study you are talking about. The study didn’t try to go into all of the engineering detail that would be needed to actually lead… Read more »
Non-hydro renewables (wind, solar, geothermal, tidal) are intermittent by nature and so require redundant gas capacity. Few new gas wells are being drilled, so gas looks poised to skyrocket as… Read more »
I think you are mostly right–we may very well have blackouts in the near future, if we use intermittent renewables. Part of the problem is that when competitive pricing is… Read more »
Let’s take these questions one at a time: 1. Is it really feasible for intermittent renewables to generate a large share of grid electricity? This question needs some bounding. What… Read more »
Let me point out a couple of issues. One of them is that the common belief that we “run out” of fossil fuels is basically wrong. The problem is that… Read more »
To be honest, I view energy policies and regulations in the US today as being far more intermittent and costly than solar energy is. If technology would allow us to… Read more »
I am very much aware of space solar power. In fact, I think I am in the same Google Group as you are with respect to space solar. I know… Read more »
A note on the discussion about the difficulty of going beyond 30% renewable penetration to close to 100% penetration. It will take a decade or so to get to 30%… Read more »
From a physics point of view, our economy is a dissipative system. As such, it is a self-organized system whose purpose is to dissipate energy. Other examples of dissipative systems… Read more »
Gail: Without directly addressing your hypothesis that our economy is a dissipative system that will collapse if energy prices stay above $50/barrel, as I point out above the real costs… Read more »
Lifecycle cost of storing electricity before combustion as hydrocarbon fuel (diesel, natural gas, coal) is pennies per/kWh. Storing electricity after generation in batteries currently ranges from $1 to $1.50 per… Read more »
One thing to keep in mind is that electricity needs are quite seasonal. Typically, the peak electricity need is in the winter when electricity is used for heating, with perhaps… Read more »
Gail, Your points about the seasonal demands for increased storage and the economic difficulties of seasonal plant operation are valid. However, both collapse when reaching the case of 100% RE. … Read more »
Ike: Two points: (1) utility-scale energy storage is developing and prices will be dropping significantly over the next decade, driven by lower battery prices and new technologies. But even today,… Read more »
Gail’s conclusions are confirmed by Jesse Jenkins (MIT): If renewable energy is ever to become truly subsidy independent and earn its keep in electricity markets, that means there is a… Read more »
Lewis: If all of a sudden there were a very large proportion of renewables on the grid, then I would agree with your conclusions. But by the time a large… Read more »
Thanks for the link to the article that comes to the same conclusion that I do. I think that the underlying issue is that intermittent renewables displace very little, if… Read more »
The fundamental requirement for an AC power grid is instantaneous balance between generation and load across many dimensions including power, frequency, and phase. Grid resilience and efficiency and safety are… Read more »
I agree with pretty much everything you have said. I particularly like, “It is the cost of dispatchability not the cost of generation, which has always been the millstone around the… Read more »
I am not an expert in this specific area, but I try to keep learning about all renewables, both pros and cons. Here is an analysis that seems pretty compelling… Read more »
Dr. Dale hits two nails squarely on the head in his comment above. First, he makes the point that accommodating intermittent RE on the grid is more costly as penetration… Read more »
I would like to add several things that you might not be aware of …. from a new study by NOAA and University of Colorado Boulder researchers. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2016/012516-rapid-affordable-energy-transformation-possible.html Regarding… If… Read more »
Isn’t it interesting that the same people who claim that distributed generation will free people from the grid then turn around and theorize a super-grid where everything is connected to… Read more »
I’m not aware of anyone who says wind and solar power is free. Nor do energy experts claim it will be easy to get to 100% zero carbon energy. Moving… Read more »
Regarding … The fanciful theoretical “studies” like the one cited above always crash and burn when even rudimentary mathematics and physics are applied. OK … here are some projects underway… Read more »
My 10-8 reply was specific to remarks by Ike Keifer, not to Gail Twerberg
Bloomberg News: “Germany Just Got Almost All of Its Power From Renewable Energy” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-16/germany-just-got-almost-all-of-its-power-from-renewable-energy “Clean power supplied almost all of Germany’s power demand for the first time on Sunday, marking… Read more »
I assert the focus of this article is fantasy. Why would any country want to select only two renewable resources out of the portfolio ? The basis of any sustainable… Read more »
Scott: You are correct that there are many forms of clean energy that we can and should use. Your comment highlights the problem with incentivizing clean energy vs. putting a… Read more »